The renowned pollster who predicted the 2020 presidential election with unmatched accuracy has now turned their attention to the upcoming 2024 election, offering new insights. Their analysis suggests that former President Donald Trump is beginning to see positive results from his campaign efforts.
After President Joe Biden stepped down and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, she initially saw an increase in support and poll numbers. However, a shift has occurred, with Trump gaining momentum in key swing states, as detailed by AtlasIntel.
According to the National Pulse, “The dynamics among voters may have changed since the 2020 race, but each election in the U.S. is always different.” Despite this, new data shows Trump is leading in nearly all crucial states, which could result in a significant advantage in the Electoral College.
Let’s take a closer look at the current figures. In Arizona, Trump holds a lead over Harris by 4.2 points. The pattern continues in North Carolina and Nevada, where Trump leads by 3.7 and 3.6 points, respectively.
The competition in Georgia remains close, with Trump holding a 2.3-point lead over Harris.
Pennsylvania and Michigan show tighter races, with Trump just ahead by 1.5 and 0.6 points. These states are likely to be crucial battlegrounds where each vote can tip the balance.
Wisconsin offers a bit of a surprise, with Trump slightly trailing Harris by a mere 0.2 points, emphasizing the close competition.
The survey from AtlasIntel points to rising momentum for Trump, though the narrow margins are a cause for concern for the Republican side. Except for Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, the races remain within the margin of error.
Despite an increasing trend favoring Trump, most polls indicate he still lacks a significant lead over Harris, as noted by the National Pulse.
Recent developments could influence voter opinions, particularly following comments by President Biden at a Harris rally, where he controversially referred to millions of Trump supporters as “garbage.”
Further complicating things, during an event for Harris, billionaire Mark Cuban criticized female supporters of Trump, describing them as weak and lacking intelligence.
During a CNN broadcast, senior data reporter Harry Enten pointed out several factors that indicate Trump might have an edge over Harris.
Enten shared that, based on RealClearPolitics averages, Trump leads over Harris in six of the seven critical swing states.
In a CNN report, Enten referenced the public’s dissatisfaction with the country’s direction, President Biden’s waning popularity, and a rise in Republican voter registrations as factors that could benefit Trump.
“Only 28% of voters feel the country is on the right path. To put that in perspective, historically when the incumbent party loses, this sentiment is usually around 25%,” Enten noted.
“That 28% is alarmingly close to the historical 25% associated with incumbent losses, contrasting sharply with the 42% that typically aligns with incumbent victories. Currently, very few Americans express optimism about the direction of the nation, paralleling scenarios that usually result in the incumbent losing,” he added.
“Historically, there are no known instances where only 28% of Americans felt the country was on the right track, and the incumbent party still won,” Enten further stated. “A 28% approval rating has always been followed by a loss for the incumbents.”
